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Visual essay · Critical minerals · May 2026

China pulled the trigger on rare earths.

America’s way out runs through Africa.

By Nariman Teymourian

Slide 1 of 7. China pulled the trigger on rare earths. America’s way out runs through Africa. An essay by Nariman Teymourian, May 2026.
Slide 2 of 7. The shock, April 2025: Beijing imposes export licenses on seven rare earth elements and the magnets that depend on them; Chinese magnet exports to Japan and South Korea fell more than 90% within weeks.
Slide 3 of 7. The grip: one country holds 70% of the world’s mined rare earths and 85–90% of global separation and refining capacity.
Slide 4 of 7. The response: the Pentagon’s $400M investment in MP Materials, a 15% federal equity stake and a $110/kg NdPr price floor — real progress, but Mountain Pass makes light rare earths while America’s bottleneck is heavy ones.
Slide 5 of 7. The opening: Africa’s rare earth moment, with projects in Malawi, Tanzania, Namibia and South Africa; eight new African mines could supply roughly 10% of global supply by 2029.
Slide 6 of 7. What the U.S. must do: six moves — finish the Lobito Corridor, run the MP Materials playbook in Africa, build the midstream, match financing to the timeline, build refineries inside Africa, and put one person in charge.
Slide 7 of 7. The stakes: the next decade of rare earth politics will be settled in Lubumbashi, Lilongwe and Walvis Bay.

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