Why DRC copper is a compelling investment.
Copper is entering a structural shortage, and the Democratic Republic of Congo is the main place new supply is coming from.
Download the full report (PDF)Copper is entering a structural shortage, and the DRC is the main place new supply is coming from. Prices set all-time highs in September 2026, and the most recent forecasts point higher still. Citi sees $15,000/t by year-end, UBS $15,500/t by mid-2027 and Jefferies about $17,600/t by 2030–32. Morgan Stanley says 2026 will be the first year of falling global mine output since 2017, with little new supply before 2030. The DRC has tripled its output in a decade, is now the world’s No. 2 producer, and is drawing record US-backed investment.
Why DRC copper is compelling
- Supply can’t keep up. Ore grades are down about 40% since 1991, new mines take about 17 years to build, and investment has run at roughly a third of what is needed. Mine accidents at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente and Escondida show how thin the margin for error is.
- Demand is broadening. Grids, EVs, AI data centres and defence are all adding demand at once, and China and the US are both stockpiling strategically.
- The DRC is where supply is growing. It was the only top-three producer to grow in 2025, and the IEA credits DRC and Zambian projects with narrowing the global gap.
- Policy favors local players. The concentrate export ban and the “do it in the DRC” processing strategy increase demand for locally supplied ore and processing. Zero or negative treatment charges also give ore sellers more bargaining power.
- Western capital and export routes are arriving. The US–DRC partnership, DFC financing, the Lobito railway and US buyers all widen the market for DRC copper.
What to manage
Near-term prices will be volatile. Part of the 2026 rally came from US tariff stockpiling, the Fed raised rates in September, and ICSG still forecasts a small refined-copper surplus. In the DRC, the mining code amendment, tax enforcement, and acid and power costs need active management. These risks shape how to invest; they do not change the direction of the market.
Verdict
A strong buy-side case for DRC copper on a three-to-five-year horizon. The long-term shortage is widely agreed, and the newest forecasts see prices at or above today’s levels. The DRC is the clearest source of new supply. The best risk-adjusted route is low-cost, contracted ore supply and local processing, with capital deployed in stages and every plan tested at $11,000/t copper.
The full report covers the 2020–2026 price rise, institutional supply-and-demand outlooks, price forecasts, the DRC’s production growth, policy and fiscal regime, the local ore and processing market, a country risk scorecard, ways to invest, and a due-diligence checklist.
Download the full report (PDF)
Figures are as of 27 September 2026 and cite third-party sources listed in the full report. This report is market research, not investment advice.